Wilson: Danger Russ or Dangerous?

Article by Rob Newell

 

Going into his fourth year in the league, Russell Wilson the third round selection of the Seattle Seahawks could soon be the highest paid player in the NFL, if you believe the reports that are floating around.  This would mean therefore Wilson earning more than his fellow QB in that draft Andrew Luck, (whose own mega $million contract cannot be far away) as well as the current QB pecking order of Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisburger, Peyton Manning as well as more recent mega deals of Cam Newton and Matt Ryan.  The question therefore is this, should Wilson be paid that much, does he belong in that company.

Now to be fair to Wilson, it is difficult to argue with a QB who has taken his team to back to back Super Bowls and has that team firmly established as the early favourites to make it three appearances in a row.  True, others will point out that the Seahawks of the last few years were a heavily run first orientated team, with the Beast Mode incarnate Marshawn Lynch in the backfield why wouldn’t they be? 

 

The two most recent large decisions of the Seahawks though, show that a change of philosophy is occurring in Seattle.  To any of the twelves who may read this, I apologise for briefly mentioning that play in the Super Bowl once more, but the fact that the play was put on Wilson’s arm rather than Lynch’s legs, shows a shifting of the balance of power.  If further evidence was required, the first trade of free agency, seeing Jimmy Graham arriving in Seattle, has been done to give Wilson that legitimate receiving threat, it is not going to help Lynch any in the running game.  Despite comments from Graham to the opposite, Graham is not an asset in the blocking department.

Don’t get me wrong, Lynch will still have his opportunity to burn off some Skittles with some Beast Quake runs, but more and more this team will go as far as Wilson takes them.  And DangerRuss as his Twitter handle would have him, is probably the closest thing to the All-American boy playing QB in the league today.  He is very media friendly, always positive and has an infamous work and study ethic.

 

So then how does he compare to his peers, does he belong at the top of the money tree?  Within NFL circles it is Third Down that is known as the Money Down, meaning that those players that can positively influence third down plays for their team, by either stopping or converting on a regular basis, tend to be the ones that earn the big money.  For a QB therefore that means, converting for a First down or even better a Touchdown and certainly avoiding the turnover.

The top performing QB’s last year and converting Third Down were, Aaron Rodgers followed by Andrew Luck, Wilson was down around tenth in the rankings when the stats are reviewed.  Fans of Wilson will of course point to Wilson’s ability to keep the play alive and run for the first down himself, however although Wilson certainly had impressive rushing yardage last year, the top performing QB at converting Third Down via running themselves was Cam Newton, also up there was Ben Roesthlisburger in this category Wilson was actually just outside the top five.

Therefore the stats would suggest that Wilson is not yet the top QB in the game and therefore probably should not be paid as such.  There is very little doubt that Wilson is going to get paid though either by the Seahawks or somebody else will be very fast to snap him up.  Wilson himself seems happy to back himself, quoted as saying, “no matter if it’s $1.5million or $25million he just wants to get on with football”.

Russell Wilson is probably being very clever here, as right now if he were to pursue a new deal the Seahawks would probably knock it down to below the Rodgers and Newton contract levels and the stats would be on the teams’ side.  If he can stay healthy and the coaching staff show the same level of faith in him, it is very hard to believe that Wilson will not put up a career year in 2015 and the value of any contract signed after that will then be significantly inflated, it would be more probable than not to presume.

 

Meanwhile watching all this very closely is Andrew Luck and his agent and no doubt rubbing their hands together and picking up Johnny Manziel’s Money sign.