Is there a Phoenix in the Dumpster Fire Ashes?

Article by Rob Newell

 

What should the NFL family expect from the 2015 version of the San Francisco 49ers? After three consecutive NFC Championship game appearances including one Super Bowl, the 2014 team fell down to earth somewhat, for most teams that would be bad enough, what has followed since though has led to the NFL media being seemingly unable to separate the words San Francisco and Dumpster Fire from the same sentence.  What is the state of play at Levi Stadium? Is it really as bad as everyone seems to think?

 

Let's look at some of the departures for a moment, starting at the very top, Jim Harbaugh, although blessed with an enviable win / loss record as a coach, has a style that could politely be referred to as not being player friendly.  When stories surfaced last off-season that he was possibly being traded to Cleveland the writing was clearly on the wall, by seasons end, the worst kept secret in football was that Harbaugh was out.  Jim Tomsula on the other hand, is a players coach.  He may not be as media savvy as some but his players wherever he has coached have loved him, he may not have the experience of a Mike Holmgren for example but someone who the locker room know and respect could be what this team needs to move on.

 

The retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland would rock any team obviously, however the Niners played most of last year without Willis, and still had one of the better defences in the league.  Losing Borland as well was unexpected, but the returning Navarro Bowman might be seen as an improvement.  Justin Smith although disappointing was hardly unexpected, and the Niners addressed that possibility in the first round of the draft.  The secondary holes may be more significant but Eric Reed aside, the Niners were not blessed with outstanding talent there.  In terms of transition, they will be hoping on a return to form for Aldon Smith, who after some rather disappointing off field decisions probably needs to prove something to the Niners front office this year if he wants a large pay day anytime soon.  If Smith finds that 20 sack a season form the secondary will look better anyways as opposing QBs will be under pressure to get off the pass.

 

On Offence, the losses on the OL are big, there is no underplaying that, but this was not a line to rival the Cowboys for example.  Colin Kaepernick was the second most sacked QB in the league last year behind Jaguars rookie, Blake Bortles, that is a disappointing statistic for any team that has the athletic ability of a Colin Kaepernick at the position.  Kaepernick is not exempt from blame here, he can be blamed for holding on to long and trying to make a play.  From what we are told though Kaepernick has been working hard this season, working with Kurt Warner on timing and accuracy, if this bears out in the regular season under new coordinator Geep Chryst, then things might just be looking upwards.  Niners fans would love to see Kaepernick used more in the run game too, similar to division rival Russell Wilson in Seattle.

 

The Inconvenient Truth this season is that Frank Gore has gone to Indianapolis, better to lose a player too early than too late, is a mantra that a team like the Patriots would advise, seems to work out ok for them.  Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush are a fairly good option in the backfield, Hyde showed in glimpses last year what he was capable of and with Gore gone, Hyde figures to be the main option and needs to show that power running game on a regular basis, then there is of course the X factor from Australian Rugby League Jarryd Hayne.  A star and former MVP of the league in Australia, just what he might bring to the Niners is unknown right now.

 

Anquain Boldin is still as reliable a receiving threat as there is in the league, and he is joined this year by Torrey Smith who us a flyer and will take the edge of most defences.  The last time this receiving pair played together they won a Super Bowl (against the Niners, if you can not beat them, sign them I guess) then there is Vernon Davis.  A quiet year last year by any standards, but Davis figures to rebound this season, and if he does then he could well re-establish himself in the top tier of Tight Ends in the league. 

As for Receiving out of the backfield, Reggie Bush is one of the better options you can have, if he can stay healthy.  If Hyde is the main running option though, Bush could well be healthier than previous seasons.

 

So what do you have in San Francisco?  To be honest nobody knows yet! This time last year, The Dallas Cowboys defence was supposed to be all-time bad, they ended up one disputed catch away from the Championship game.  Not saying the Niners are going to the playoffs or anything like that yet, but a dumpster fire is a tad harsh.  Like so many teams this will come down to the QB, ignore the rest of the off- season for a moment, an in form Kaepernick, Carlos Hyde, Boldin, Smith, Davis with Bush out of the backfield would soon pretty impressive, it will come down to Kaepernick moving around and hitting his reads as he has been working on.  Time to earn some of the big money contract for number 7, if he can then drives will last longer the defence will be better rested and the team will look better overall.

 

They may do all of this and finish fourth in the division still, down to the pure strength of the NFC West, but if momentum gets rolling in San Francisco who knows?  Golden State Warriors rode it all the way to the NBA Championship, just maybe the Niners get to 8-8 or dare I say a winning record.  In a city which witnessed the catch, just maybe miracles can happen!

Will we ever see the best of Kaepernick?

Article by Lee Scott

he 2015 season promises to be a season of flux for the San Francisco 49ers to this point the list of names of players that have departed includes Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati, Stevie Johnson, Chris Borland and Patrick Willis add to that the fact that Jim Harbaugh has departed from his head coaching role and that offensive co-ordinator Greg Roman has now moved on to the Buffalo Bills and the 49ers are moving in to 2015 with a new look across the board. When general manager Trent Baalke announced the departure of Jim Harbaugh in the off season he stressed that the move constitutes a reload and not a rebuild, there is a tangible sense that the 49ers front office is holding on to hope that they remain a challenger but the fact remains that to challenge for the division let alone the conference or the championship the 49ers need quarterback Colin Kaepernick to step up and realise his potential.

 

When the San Francisco 49ers moved up in the 2011 NFL draft they gave up three picks to the Denver Broncos in order to take Kaepernick with the 36^th overall pick from the University of Nevada the experts seemed to agree that there was a huge upside to the quarterbacks game but they also agreed that he was extremely raw and that he would need to be coached up to the NFL level. In his rookie season Kaepernick sat behind the more experienced Alex Smith and saw limited game time but in 2012 Kaepernick ousted the more experienced Smith and the offense started to mould itself around the more athletic quarterback. The emergence of Kaepernick as the starter was aided by something of a perfect storm, offensive co-ordinator Greg Roman had implemented a zone blocking system with running back Frank Gore and tight end Vernon Davis as the cornerstones of the offensive system. The emergence of Colin Kaepernick allowed Roman to add an extra wrinkle to the offensive scheme with the implementation of the read option given the athletic traits of Kaepernick. This new scheme culminated in a run to the Super Bowl in the 2013 season and the high point for the read option implementation came in the Wildcard game against the Green Bay Packers in which Kaepernick ran for 181 yards in a near unstoppable show.

 

Fast forward to 2015 and there are still questions around whether Kaepernick will ever reach his undoubted potential. In the 2014 season there was a clear focus from the 49ers to change Kaepernick in to a more traditional passing quarterback although he only threw for 19 touchdowns with 10 interceptions compared to 21 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in the 2013 season. When you take away the threat that he may run then teams are better placed to take away the threat of the pass. With Frank Gore having departed the 49ers have a lot of questions at running back going in to the new season with Carlos Hyde currently projected to be the starter and he at least comes from an inside zone/gap scheme with the Ohio State Buckeyes but in 2014 his playing time behind Gore was limited and he only took 83 handoffs going for 333 yards for an average of 4.0 yards per carry, Hyde has undoubted potential but for teams to focus on him and allow Kaepernick the freedom to run from the pocket then he will have to start to achieve his potential. Whilst Gore will be a big loss to the 49ers running game arguably the loss of guard Mike Iuapati will be even more keenly felt, last year Iupati was the strongest player on the 49ers offensive line and he was a key part in the running game. His loss to divisional rivals the Arizona Cardinals leaves a large hole to be filled before the new season

In 2014 Kaepernick signed a new 6 year contract worth an estimated $126 million, this deal represents a huge risk for a franchise that does not quite know how best to utilise the quarterback, if he is going to be at his most effective then Kaepernick has to be allowed to use his instincts and vision to escape pressure and run the ball through gaps in the opposition and the read option has to remain a prevalent part of the offensive scheme. If however they continue to try to develop the quarterback as a traditional pocket passer then they will need to manage their playing personnel accordingly. Moving on Michael Crabtree was a relatively standard move and the addition of Torrey Smith from the Baltimore Ravens gives the 49ers a vertical threat that will stretch the field and at least keep the defense honest. That said tight end Vernon Davis is another year older and with every passing season his capacity to create separation over the middle is diminished.

What then will the 49ers choose to do going forward? It is all very well for Trent Baalke to maintain appearances in asserting that they are still going for the championship and are not rebuilding but in a division in which the Seattle Seahawks appear to be developing a stranglehold then realistically the franchise may be heading inexorably towards rebuild mode. If they do start to focus more on a reboot and rebuild then being burdened with a high cap number on a quarterback that is neither allowed to be a true mobile threat and is not polished enough to be a pocket passer would be detrimental in the long term. Would the 49ers be willing to trade their franchise quarterback at this point? There is little doubt that there would be an active market. A lot hinges on the performance on the field this season and whether the new head coach and offensive co-ordinator can build a scheme that makes the most of Kaepernick’s undoubted talent.

Adams proves to be Apple of Packers eye

Article by Lee Scott

 

There is no offseason in today’s NFL, storylines run straight through from the Super Bowl to Free Agency and then the Draft before slowing slightly as the focus turns to contract renegotiations and then to Training Camp before finally the new season is ready to start. Whilst it is true that there is no shortage of news stories throughout the calendar year it is still possible to split the NFL year in to two separate categories, from September through to January we have game tape and statistical breakdowns of each game and each play and the evidence lends weights to the judgements and articles that are written. On the other hand from February to August is a time for NFL fans to dream and project stardom and success on their franchises and players as upside and potential suddenly become more important than established statistical success, this year Packers fans are dreaming big on Davante Adams.

 

This will be Adams second season in the NFL having been selected in the second round of the 2014 draft with the 53^rd pick by the Green Bay Packers following an impressive college career at Fresno State. Under General Manager Ted Thompson the Packers have an established record of picking well in the draft and if Adams first year in the league is anything to go by he projects to be another success for the Packers. In his first year Adams had an impressive rookie year with an above average stat line for a first year wideout with 38 receptions for 446 yards and three touchdowns. This only tells part of the story however as Adams was targeted a total of 66 times by Aaron Rodgers at the helm of the Packers offense. Getting 66 targets at all in a side containing Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb as a first year player shows that coaches and team mates alike believe in Adams. There were some games in which Adams had to be patient as the gameplan kept the ball away from him but there were two games in which his potential flashed for the world to see. In November against the New England Patriots Adams was targeted 11 times with 6 receptions and 121 yards in a 26-21 win and then in the playoff match with the Dallas Cowboys he was again targeted 11 times with 7 receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. In both of these games Adams showed above average awareness in running his routes and creating separation from his man. If those games showed clear potential and development though then what can we expect to see in the upcoming season?

 

There is no doubt that Davante Adams is the third receiver on the Packers roster with Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb established as an elite one and two ahead of him. There is also no chance at all that this is going to change any time soon as only last year Nelson signed a 4 year contract worth $39 million and this season Randall Cobb narrowly avoided being the star attraction of free agency and signed his own 4 year deal worth $40 million. This does not however mean that Adams will not see significant snaps in the 2015 season as the Packers will use Adams in ways to create matchup problems for their opponents as they are lacking a genuine vertical threat at the tight end position this will mean that Adams will see a lot of time lined up in the slot where he can use his speed to create problems for opposing linebackers and his size and awareness to overpower opposing nickel cornerbacks. At the same time do not be surprised if we start to see Adams lining up outside as a second receiver opposite Jordy Nelson, this will allow Randall Cobb to slide inside in to the slot receivers role.

 

At 5ft 10 and 192lb Cobb is not quite undersized to play on the outside but he will be able to make the most of his explosive cuts and quick hands to cause havoc in the slot position whilst having Nelson and Adams on the outside will ensure that teams have to respect their threat and cannot overload the centre of the field to guard against Cobb on inside routes. Further evidence that we can expect a more prominent role from Adams in the forthcoming season has come from the quotes that have started to emerge from the Packers camp.

Head Coach Mike McCarthy has come out and said that “I think that he has been tremendous throughout the OTA’s, and he’s got more in front of him, too, so I think that’s what’s exciting. I think Davante has done a great job in the strength and conditioning, he’s been really, really good throughout this deal” It isn’t unusual for a head coach to be talking up players at this stage of the process but that doesn’t tend to be the norm for the Packers who pride themselves on expecting their young players to prove themselves before they are given any sense of preferential treatment.

 Perhaps more telling was the quote from Quarterback Aaron Rodgers who said that “I think that Davante Adams could be a star. He has all the makings athletically and intelligence-wise to be a big time player” Rodgers is renowned for being a hard man to impress and it certainly bodes well for Adams that he appears to have already won the trust of the man that makes the Packers offense tick.

In terms of sophomore receivers within the NFL as a whole you would have to place the likes of Odell Beckham of the New York Giants and Brandin Cooks of the New Orleans Saints also posed to have strong years but you could easily make a case for Davante Adams to be in the strongest system of all and to be best placed to succeed within a system. There is no immediate pressure to perform immediately but at the same time if either Nelson or Cobb was to go down with an injury then Adams will be well placed to take their snaps and targets. Don’t be surprised to see Davante Adams emerge as a star in his own right after the 2015 season and don’t be surprised if Ted Thompson is once again proven to have been right in the draft process.

Green Bay welcomes back the Gunslinger

Article by Rob Newell

 

This past weekend, the Green Bay Packers faithful welcomed home one of their own, someone who has been described as one of the best to everRRE play the game and someone who has thrown for more yards than anybody else in NFL history.

 

Yet the manner in which Brett Favre left Green Bay and gave rise to the Aaron Rodgers era, had many people doubting that such an event as we saw this weekend could ever happen.  Even up to the Saturday itself there were doubts remaining as to what sort of reaction, the old number four would encounter.  Favre himself had admitted to certain levels of doubt, but as the Sun shone down on Lambeau Field, and the PA announcer asked the close to 80,000 gathered to welcome Brett Favre, the close to five minute standing ovation that followed left nobody with any doubts that in footballing terms, Favre was home.

 

From Favre to Rodgers, Green Bay have since 1992 to date experienced a level of QB play that very few franchises can match,  Colts fans will point to Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck as a rival, but the Colts had a season in between the two whereas the Packers transition was seemless, but the Packers fans remember the years before Favre and Mike Holmgren came to town.

 

Favre of course was originally selected by the Atlanta Falcons, who must have kicked themselves several times when they saw what he went on to achieve, but in their defence their was nothing in that rookie season that indicated what was to come.  Favre’s rookie season was little better than what Johnny Manziel managed last year in Cleveland.  Yet Green Bay offered up a first round draft pick for Favre at the time, can you imagine anyone doing the same in today's NFL for Manziel?

 

The Packers, got the best end of that deal, Favre went on to earn 3 MVP trophies himself, and bought the Vince Lomardi trophy back home in the eyes of Packer faithful, and Green Bay could once again call itself Titletown USA.  This is something that those in attendance on Saturday night will not forget, and as a result the number four will never be worn by another Packer, but remains as frequently spotted in stadiums around the league wherever the Packers are playing.

 

Brett Favre belongs in the Packers Hall of Fame alongside Bart Starr, Reggie White etc… But scratch that Brett Favre belongs in Canton when all is said and done.  He is one of the all time greats, and excelled in an era that included Elway, Kelly, Manning, Brady, Montana and Young, Favre is a legend and the 80,000 who came to Lambeau and the millions who watched on TV around the world know it and wanted to make sure that the returning Gunslinger knew it too.

Nomadic Rams, Making a home

Article by Rob Newell

I begin this article by asking you to pause for just one moment, and consider the conundrum that is the 2015 St Louis Rams.  For a few seasons now, people have been waiting on the Rams to break out of their recent humdrum, without it ever coming to pass.

I urge you therefore to look at this team, with fresh eyes as it were, really look at them and break down the roster.  The defensive front 7 on paper as good as any team in the league, with all due apologies to fans of the Texans, Bills and Jets, you might argue that the Rams front 7 as a collective unit is the best in the league.  Add in the defensive co-ordinator Gregg Williams who nobody can deny is one of the more aggressive play callers in the league (Brett Favre, may argue too much so) and you have a unit that will scare a lot of opponents.  Defensive End, Robert Quinn could well be an early season candidate for the Deacon Jones award this season, which would be kind of poetic to see that particular award in the hands of a Ram.

On offence however, it is no longer the Sam Bradford factor, how healthy would be?  Would he ever live up to the huge rookie contract?  Questions now for Eagles head coach Chip Kelly to ponder, as the Rams for the first time in several years are looking to play an entire season with their starting QB.  That QB is of course the new boy in St Louis, Nick Foles.

 

Foles, is all honesty probably not as good as the figures from two years ago suggested, but when you put up all time figures in terms of touchdown to interception ratio, nobody is going to just get better and better.  He is also, it is fair to say, better than the stats would show last year in Philadelphia.  Yes more interceptions were thrown, but with Foles starting the Eagles were on course for the playoffs.  Foles, is also a QB that unless you are a staunch Rams or Eagles fan, that you are unlikely to recognise should he ever walk past you.  Not something many starting QB’s in the NFL can claim. 

Despite this, the fact that he is worthy of a being a NFL starter is not disputable, he has clearly shown the potential, and on that basis when you have been playing for pretty much two whole seasons with second and third string on the depth chart guys, Foles is clearly a step up.  Having a starting QB should also make or break some of the Receivers on the Rams.

There has been many comments mostly unkind, about the Rams WR unit, and lack of star power, but just how good would we have though Jerry Rice was if it wasn’t Joe Montana or Steve Young, but instead Steve Bono throwing him passes.  Now obviously, I am not putting the Rams Receivers in the class of Jerry Rice, nobody is in that class yet, maybe one day Megatron will get close, but Stedman Bailey is a receiver who has shown signs of something promising, and Tavon Austin the former no.8 overall pick has all the potential in the world.  Working under the mentorship of Kenny Britt and playing games with a no.1 QB can only help the unit develop, but the Rams bread and butter pass will be off play action as this team will run.

 

 

Tre Mason started to come into his own in the second half of last season, and was closing in on a near 1,000 yard rookie season, and many observes around the league, Rams fans or not, were expecting big things from Mason in 2015, right up to draft day.  When Roger Goodell spoke the words with the 10^th pick in the 2015 draft the St Louis Rams select Todd Gurley, all bets were off as to what sort of team this Rams team would be.  Gurley whose selection made the previous year Rams RB Zac Stacey request a trade, has been described as the best RB to come out of college since Adrian Peterson, and he has turned out ok (on the field, at least).

So think about all that and you see a team that really could be on the verge of something big in St Louis.  Maybe not Greatest Show on Turf big, but a team that could well be in the playoff hunt and should be capable of competing with Seattle and Arizona.   The problem though is that this time may not be the St Louis Rams much longer.  With nearly every passing day, its seems more and more likely that this team will be the 2016 Los Angeles Rams, the scheduled owners meeting in August could well provide more information to this end.

So a team that may well be on the verge of something and should be exciting its fanbase may just be on the verge of alienating it in one swift movement.  When teams move, change it seems is almost inevitable elsewhere in the organistion.  Any team in LA will need to excite the local marketplace who have the Lakers, Clippers, Dodgers, Kings etc… yes Los Angeles has not had football since the Rams and Raiders left town, but it is not like LA has suffered greatly as a result.  Does LA need the NFL or does the NFL need LA more?

If the latter is true, is the future of coach Jeff Fisher under pressure.  Likely that 8-8 seasons will not cut it in the LA environment, will there be an expectation to offer a more expansive style of play rather than the more conservative Fisher approach?  All questions that can be solved by winning of course! Win to much now and does it become more difficult to move from St Louis as the city seems to be doing a lot in order to keeps it’s NFL franchise.

The 2015 Rams, on paper, on screen even, should be a playoff team, but probably not till they know if they are coming or going, if they are going, history suggests that this may not be the year the Rams faithful would have hoped for, and for some involved in the Rams that may be their final chance.

 

Carson: The Cardinals Jenga Piece

Article by Robert Newell

 

I am sure by now that many of you will be aware of the work of NFL.com broadcaster Dave Dameshek. One of his more popular theories in recent years is that each team has a Jenga piece that the removal of that player will mean the entire team collapses.  Dameshek would normally look at other positions than QB as that is normally too easy to state that the QB is the most important player on the team.

However, I present the evidence of the 2014 Arizona Cardinals (you can also consider the second half of the 2013 Cardinals) and betide anyone to identify a more important piece of that team that Carson Palmer.  I apologise for the shock that statement must cause to any fans of the Cincinnati Bengals and Oakland Raiders, who have both previously had the Palmer experience to not a great deal of success, but under the tutelage of Bruce Arians, Palmer has managed to go 15-2 in his last 17 starts.

 

At the time of getting injured in 2014, Palmer had managed to clearly establish the Cardinals atop the ultra-competitive NFC West, steering the Cardinals out to a 10-1 start, without a particularly effective running game.  Obviously at that point the Cardinals QB position became a revolving door as the Cardinals spluttered to a premature end, when at one point they appeared to have a shot of being the first team to play at their home field in a Super Bowl.

The news out of Arizona going into training camp ahead of the 2015 season is that Palmer is ahead of schedule in his rehab.  This has caused some players to express to the media that they believe that the Cardinals are looking for a Super Bowl run, and they believe they are on track to appear in Super Bowl 50 next February.

 

What evidence is there to back up their optimism, apart from the returning Carson Palmer and hopefully re-establishing some stability in the QB position.  Well, you have to believe that two time coach of the year Bruce Arians will find a way to get the most out of the Cardinals offence,  nearly all the Cardinals starters are returning to the offence for 2015, including future Hall of Famer, Larry Fitzgerald.  Obviously as I have suggested in previous articles, the Cardinals were strongly linked to Adrian Peterson, who has remained in Minnesota.

The Cardinals will therefore be putting their backfield hopes in a fit again Andre Ellington and hoping that he can find the form that earned comparisons to Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs.  The Cardinals did draft David Johnson in the 3^rd round as well, and there have been many positive stories out of Arizona about the form of the rookie, and both of these will be running behind a stronger offensive line, including new signing at left guard Mike Iapati from San Francisco.  The hope is that the Cardinals will therefore be a more balance offensive team, but you know Arians will still be looking for the big play whenever possible.

The Cardinals defence has seen more turnover, but not many of the players who left were actually starting last year.  Antonio Cromartie is probably the biggest absence, but losing a No.2 cornerback is not really the biggest need for concern.  Defensive co-ordinator Todd Bowles is now the Head Coach of the Jets, and his replacement although he has the full backing of Arians has never been a co-ordinator before, so what impact will this have on what was an impressive defence last year.

The Birdgang faithful may want to hold off on the San Francisco hotel bookings for next February just for now, but there is every reason to hope that if any team can overcome Seattle, it might just be the team from Arizona.

Wilson: Danger Russ or Dangerous?

Article by Rob Newell

 

Going into his fourth year in the league, Russell Wilson the third round selection of the Seattle Seahawks could soon be the highest paid player in the NFL, if you believe the reports that are floating around.  This would mean therefore Wilson earning more than his fellow QB in that draft Andrew Luck, (whose own mega $million contract cannot be far away) as well as the current QB pecking order of Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisburger, Peyton Manning as well as more recent mega deals of Cam Newton and Matt Ryan.  The question therefore is this, should Wilson be paid that much, does he belong in that company.

Now to be fair to Wilson, it is difficult to argue with a QB who has taken his team to back to back Super Bowls and has that team firmly established as the early favourites to make it three appearances in a row.  True, others will point out that the Seahawks of the last few years were a heavily run first orientated team, with the Beast Mode incarnate Marshawn Lynch in the backfield why wouldn’t they be? 

 

The two most recent large decisions of the Seahawks though, show that a change of philosophy is occurring in Seattle.  To any of the twelves who may read this, I apologise for briefly mentioning that play in the Super Bowl once more, but the fact that the play was put on Wilson’s arm rather than Lynch’s legs, shows a shifting of the balance of power.  If further evidence was required, the first trade of free agency, seeing Jimmy Graham arriving in Seattle, has been done to give Wilson that legitimate receiving threat, it is not going to help Lynch any in the running game.  Despite comments from Graham to the opposite, Graham is not an asset in the blocking department.

Don’t get me wrong, Lynch will still have his opportunity to burn off some Skittles with some Beast Quake runs, but more and more this team will go as far as Wilson takes them.  And DangerRuss as his Twitter handle would have him, is probably the closest thing to the All-American boy playing QB in the league today.  He is very media friendly, always positive and has an infamous work and study ethic.

 

So then how does he compare to his peers, does he belong at the top of the money tree?  Within NFL circles it is Third Down that is known as the Money Down, meaning that those players that can positively influence third down plays for their team, by either stopping or converting on a regular basis, tend to be the ones that earn the big money.  For a QB therefore that means, converting for a First down or even better a Touchdown and certainly avoiding the turnover.

The top performing QB’s last year and converting Third Down were, Aaron Rodgers followed by Andrew Luck, Wilson was down around tenth in the rankings when the stats are reviewed.  Fans of Wilson will of course point to Wilson’s ability to keep the play alive and run for the first down himself, however although Wilson certainly had impressive rushing yardage last year, the top performing QB at converting Third Down via running themselves was Cam Newton, also up there was Ben Roesthlisburger in this category Wilson was actually just outside the top five.

Therefore the stats would suggest that Wilson is not yet the top QB in the game and therefore probably should not be paid as such.  There is very little doubt that Wilson is going to get paid though either by the Seahawks or somebody else will be very fast to snap him up.  Wilson himself seems happy to back himself, quoted as saying, “no matter if it’s $1.5million or $25million he just wants to get on with football”.

Russell Wilson is probably being very clever here, as right now if he were to pursue a new deal the Seahawks would probably knock it down to below the Rodgers and Newton contract levels and the stats would be on the teams’ side.  If he can stay healthy and the coaching staff show the same level of faith in him, it is very hard to believe that Wilson will not put up a career year in 2015 and the value of any contract signed after that will then be significantly inflated, it would be more probable than not to presume.

 

Meanwhile watching all this very closely is Andrew Luck and his agent and no doubt rubbing their hands together and picking up Johnny Manziel’s Money sign.