The What If? Season

Article by Rob Newell

We are now in that part of the NFL calendar that I like to refer to as the What If? Season; there will be no games until August.  Free Agency is all but done, despite the best efforts of Adrian Peterson; it seems there are some things that even a 43 minute Twitter rant cannot solve.  The draft has happened and teams are at their mandated 90 man limit as OTA’s have started.

In reality despite our best efforts we don’t know what it is we don’t know at this point, but yet that doesn’t stop us asking the questions or posing answers to those questions, from who is going to the Super Bowl? Who will play defensive back for the New England Patriots? What is Chip Kelly thinking? Or maybe our questions are more fantasy football related, how good will Odell Beckham Junior be in his second year? Is he a first round selection? Is Peyton Manning too old or was it just the injury?  This is all part of the fun isn’t it?  I am affected too by this, each year I sit down around this time and work my way through the schedule and try to predict the winners of each game, thus giving me final standings in each division and therefore potential play-off scenarios and eventually a Super Bowl matchup.  The last few years I have been reasonably successful at this, two years ago getting both Super Bowl finalists and one of the two last year.  Would be happy to post this prediction if anyone would like it, either to show off in February or fall as flat on my face as Aston Villa in a Cup Final.

 

The NFL.com community have proven themselves just as likely to fall into this practice, Bucky Brooks has recently posted a piece on the most talented teams in the league, I won’t ruin the whole top 10 for those who might be interested in reading this, but (SPOILER ALERT) no surprise the Seattle Seahawks are ranked at No.1.  Due to keeping the majority of the defensive starters, the continuing development of Russell Wilson, re-signing Marshawn Lynch and adding of course Jimmy Graham. 

It makes sense of course, two times NFC Champions, and from the NFC West, the best division in football these last few years, the Seahawks should be considered as early Super Bowl contenders, favourites even, but for me something doesn’t seem right in Seattle.  They may well work it all out as they did last year, but the real indication of the Seahawks coming season will once again be the game with the Green Bay Packers.  This time though Seattle will be the team on the road and if they can take down Green Bay and the vaunted Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field without the fanatical twelves behind them then I will admit I am wrong to have doubts and make them favourites too.

Sometimes when you look back at the end of the season at what made the difference it is something that was almost unnoticed at the time, something seemingly small and insignificant.  Something like a new QB coach, Jeff Garcia for example joining the St Louis Rams coaching staff.  Garcia has experienced much in this league, and the Rams for all their other weapons at just about every other position on the Roster have struggled mightily at QB.  True Nick Foles is probably a step up from Shaun Hill and Sam Bradford (if he stays healthy in Philadelphia this may be revised).  Garcia’s experience could be vital in seeing a talented roster progress.  This leads me to another big What If?

Do you need an “Elite” QB to win it all?  Teams like the Rams, Bills, Jets, Texans are stacked at so many positions on their teams, can they win it all with average QB play or do you need a Brady, Rodgers, Manning to cover other deficiencies.  How many of us would put Carson Palmer in our top 10 QB’s, if we are honest I would wager not many even of ardent Cardinals fans.  Yet Palmer is 13-2 in his last 15 starts.  Colin Kaepernick was going to be the best ever according to Ron Jarowski at one point, if Kaepernick returns to the form of the Super Bowl season is that enough to keep San Francisco in the playoff hunt in 2015?

It certainly seems easier with an elite QB but Tom Brady does not play DB as well last I checked, good as Brady was in the 4^th quarter which should not be argued, would the Patriots be Super Bowl contenders without Revis and Browner, guess we find out this year.  Eli Manning is not an elite QB but has two winners rings and still stands as the only team to beat Brady in a Super Bowl, was that down to Manning, or amazing catches by David Tyree and Mario Manningham?

I would suggest that yes a team can win it all, with a superior defence and running game and a decent if not spectacular QB.  What does that mean in the West?  Fairly soon Russell Wilson is likely to be the highest paid player in football, does that make him the best QB in the West by default?  Common metrics might have you believe so, but gun to head I am not convinced that Wilson is the best just yet; he may well prove to be so.  I think Seattle is a great team I just feel it may be someone else’s year.  The threat may well be in the division.  Rams and Cardinals and potentially the 49ers all have strong defensive units that can knock a QB out of the game; the Cardinals lost two against the Rams last year.

My final prediction for now for the coming year, In Game of Thrones style, Defence Is Coming!  I think a lot of defensive teams got a lot better, Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Packers to name a few, I think the balance of power may be restored a little next year, there will still be great offensive efforts don’t get me wrong, but yes Defence Is Coming!