The What If? Season

Article by Rob Newell

We are now in that part of the NFL calendar that I like to refer to as the What If? Season; there will be no games until August.  Free Agency is all but done, despite the best efforts of Adrian Peterson; it seems there are some things that even a 43 minute Twitter rant cannot solve.  The draft has happened and teams are at their mandated 90 man limit as OTA’s have started.

In reality despite our best efforts we don’t know what it is we don’t know at this point, but yet that doesn’t stop us asking the questions or posing answers to those questions, from who is going to the Super Bowl? Who will play defensive back for the New England Patriots? What is Chip Kelly thinking? Or maybe our questions are more fantasy football related, how good will Odell Beckham Junior be in his second year? Is he a first round selection? Is Peyton Manning too old or was it just the injury?  This is all part of the fun isn’t it?  I am affected too by this, each year I sit down around this time and work my way through the schedule and try to predict the winners of each game, thus giving me final standings in each division and therefore potential play-off scenarios and eventually a Super Bowl matchup.  The last few years I have been reasonably successful at this, two years ago getting both Super Bowl finalists and one of the two last year.  Would be happy to post this prediction if anyone would like it, either to show off in February or fall as flat on my face as Aston Villa in a Cup Final.

 

The NFL.com community have proven themselves just as likely to fall into this practice, Bucky Brooks has recently posted a piece on the most talented teams in the league, I won’t ruin the whole top 10 for those who might be interested in reading this, but (SPOILER ALERT) no surprise the Seattle Seahawks are ranked at No.1.  Due to keeping the majority of the defensive starters, the continuing development of Russell Wilson, re-signing Marshawn Lynch and adding of course Jimmy Graham. 

It makes sense of course, two times NFC Champions, and from the NFC West, the best division in football these last few years, the Seahawks should be considered as early Super Bowl contenders, favourites even, but for me something doesn’t seem right in Seattle.  They may well work it all out as they did last year, but the real indication of the Seahawks coming season will once again be the game with the Green Bay Packers.  This time though Seattle will be the team on the road and if they can take down Green Bay and the vaunted Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field without the fanatical twelves behind them then I will admit I am wrong to have doubts and make them favourites too.

Sometimes when you look back at the end of the season at what made the difference it is something that was almost unnoticed at the time, something seemingly small and insignificant.  Something like a new QB coach, Jeff Garcia for example joining the St Louis Rams coaching staff.  Garcia has experienced much in this league, and the Rams for all their other weapons at just about every other position on the Roster have struggled mightily at QB.  True Nick Foles is probably a step up from Shaun Hill and Sam Bradford (if he stays healthy in Philadelphia this may be revised).  Garcia’s experience could be vital in seeing a talented roster progress.  This leads me to another big What If?

Do you need an “Elite” QB to win it all?  Teams like the Rams, Bills, Jets, Texans are stacked at so many positions on their teams, can they win it all with average QB play or do you need a Brady, Rodgers, Manning to cover other deficiencies.  How many of us would put Carson Palmer in our top 10 QB’s, if we are honest I would wager not many even of ardent Cardinals fans.  Yet Palmer is 13-2 in his last 15 starts.  Colin Kaepernick was going to be the best ever according to Ron Jarowski at one point, if Kaepernick returns to the form of the Super Bowl season is that enough to keep San Francisco in the playoff hunt in 2015?

It certainly seems easier with an elite QB but Tom Brady does not play DB as well last I checked, good as Brady was in the 4^th quarter which should not be argued, would the Patriots be Super Bowl contenders without Revis and Browner, guess we find out this year.  Eli Manning is not an elite QB but has two winners rings and still stands as the only team to beat Brady in a Super Bowl, was that down to Manning, or amazing catches by David Tyree and Mario Manningham?

I would suggest that yes a team can win it all, with a superior defence and running game and a decent if not spectacular QB.  What does that mean in the West?  Fairly soon Russell Wilson is likely to be the highest paid player in football, does that make him the best QB in the West by default?  Common metrics might have you believe so, but gun to head I am not convinced that Wilson is the best just yet; he may well prove to be so.  I think Seattle is a great team I just feel it may be someone else’s year.  The threat may well be in the division.  Rams and Cardinals and potentially the 49ers all have strong defensive units that can knock a QB out of the game; the Cardinals lost two against the Rams last year.

My final prediction for now for the coming year, In Game of Thrones style, Defence Is Coming!  I think a lot of defensive teams got a lot better, Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Rams, Packers to name a few, I think the balance of power may be restored a little next year, there will still be great offensive efforts don’t get me wrong, but yes Defence Is Coming!

Two More Quit the West

Article by Rob Newell

 

Another week has passed by in the NFC West, and the big news in the West this week is that two more players have decided that their career is no longer to continue as a football player, one of the two in all honesty is a bigger name than the other, but I would argue that both will be equally missed.  The two players in question are of course Justin Smith and John Carlson.

 

 If you mention retirements this off season you automatically think San Francisco 49ers, rightly or wrongly and thus it should not be a great surprise that the ongoing will he won’t he storyline should result in another player walking away from the Bay Area.  I however am a little surprised as I thought the appointment of Jim Tomsula might just be enough to persuade Smith to lace them up for one more season, but after 7 seasons that saw Smith make multiple Pro Bowls, Smith has decided that he has had enough. 

 

His first 6 seasons were of course with the Cincinnati Bengals, at a time of upheaval in that franchise, but Smith made a career out of occupying double teams and freeing up space for other players to get a pass rush, not to sell Smith short though as he racked up his fair share of stats himself, but it is not unfair to suggest that some of the success of the likes of Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith had much to do with Justin Smith’s presence at the DT position.

 

 Smith’s decision now puts even more importance on the presence of Navarro Bowman in the Niners defence, if San Francisco has any pretence of being competitive in the coming season.  The good news for Niners fans is that the second player is not a Niner.

 

 John Carlson last year signed a two year extension with the Arizona Cardinals, and in the last few years has turned himself into one of the most underrated Tight Ends in the league, and had blossomed under the coaching of Bruce Arians.

 

 

You could argue that Smith’s decision was expected but nobody could claim the same about Carlson, Arizona fans might be a little upset with the timing of the decision, as coming right after the NFL draft, had this been known earlier, maybe the Cardinals would have made different decisions.  Carlson’s retirement though does leave Arizona without a recognisable option at the TE position but Cardinals fans need to trust in Arians.  How many of us had really heard of John Brown at this time last year?

 

 That turned out ok so maybe the Cardinals have something lined up, and it is fair to say that when your receiving options include Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd, your Tight End is unlikely to be your number one option, but the removal of Carlson from the Cardinals offence does take a safety blanket from Carson Palmer especially in short yardage and goal line situations. 

 

Although on paper not a real large piece of the Cardinals attack, in this division particularly as this division could be a real battle all the way to Week 17, Carlson leaving could be the thing that keeps Arizona on the outside looking in.